Graduate Exit Seminar - Cael Jones

Plan to join Cael Jones's graduate exit seminar on July 1, 2025, at 12:00 pm in Kottman Hall, Room 333 or via Zoom. Cael will present, "Climate Change in 280 Characters: Modeling Denial and Event Response in U.S. Congressional Tweets"

Abstract: Climate change denialism has grown rapidly in recent decades, as misinformation distorts the reality and impact of a worsening climate crisis. Climate denial is particularly prominent among politicians, who present a significant barrier to effective climate policy in the United States. Thus, I investigated the nature of climate change communication and the factors that influence it among U.S. Congress members through their posts on X (formerly Twitter). Given Congress’s central role in shaping both domestic and global climate policy, understanding how they communicate and disseminate information is essential. While previous research has established clear partisan divides on climate change, several important factors influencing the tone of climate change discussions and the spread of denial remain less thoroughly understood. Some of these include institutional mechanisms, electoral safety, and user interactions. Beyond this, little is known about how congressional climate communication shifts in response to focusing events, which I differentiate into two categories: natural and institutional. Addressing this gap in literature, my research employs a series of methodological approaches, integrating natural language processing, machine learning, and statistical analyses to explore a unique dataset consisting of tweets by congressional members from 2017 to 2023. The findings indicate stark partisan differences: Republicans are more likely to spread denialist messaging, significantly influenced by pressures to get reelected, past voting patterns, and engagement with users through likes. Democrats, while unquestionably supportive of climate change’s reality, exhibit slight but measurable influences from denial-aligned PAC contributions and institutional framing. Further analysis reveals clear shifts in rhetoric depending on the context: institutional events prompt more polarized, emotional, and clustered discussions in comparison to natural events.

Advisor: Dr. Ramiro Berardo