SENR Seminar Series welcomes PhD Students

The School of Environment and Natural Resources welcomes PhD students Kaustubh Kumar and Anna Kolganova on December 2, who will present their research starting at 4:00 p.m. in room 103 Kottman Hall or via Zoom. Kaustubh will present, "Using a Delphi study to integrate human dimension variables into agricultural modeling to project future cropscapes under climate change in the US" and Anna will present, "Redox Dynamics and Electron Flow in Methanogenesis."

About their talks:

Redox Dynamics and Electron Flow in Methanogenesis
Presenter: Anna Kolganova, 3rd year Ph.D. Candidate in Environment and Natural Resources

Abstract: Have you ever wondered how microbes actually make methane? The process is far more complex than the simple reaction between carbon dioxide and hydrogen. Methanogenesis, as a microbial process, is cyclic—embodied in the Wolfe Cycle—and comprehensive, requiring multiple electron carriers, enzymes, and co-factors to ultimately produce methane.

Hydrogen, the main substrate for methane formation, plays a crucial role: the dynamics of its pool in anaerobic systems strongly influence the microbial communities involved in methanogenesis. Moreover, microbes have evolved a fascinating array of mechanisms to transfer electrons among themselves and to surrounding compounds to make methane formation possible. These mechanisms include remarkable interactions where microbes can even “electrocute” each other to pass electrons.Redox dynamics further shape the direction of electron transfer in anaerobic systems. Each redox couple has its own redox potential, determining whether a given chemical acts as an electron donor or acceptor.This talk will explore these processes and how they collectively drive the Wolfe Cycle of methane formation in anaerobic environments. By understanding the biochemistry underlying methanogenesis, we can better grasp how to inhibit it and ultimately reduce methane emissions to the atmosphere.

Using a Delphi study to integrate human dimension variables into agricultural modeling to project future cropscapes under climate change in the US
Presenter: Kaustubh Kumar

Abstract: Environmental systems are deeply impacted by human factors (e.g., socioeconomic, policy, market, and technological factors). However, environmental and climate models often underestimate or ignore the role of human factors to changing biophysical conditions when predicting the future. Not incorporating these human dimension variables particularly into agricultural modeling can lead to models that fail to predict future agricultural patterns accurately. Models solely based on biophysical data may miss critical drivers (e.g., economic incentives, farm structures, etc.) of future cropscapes.

Stakeholder engagement and collaboration in agricultural modeling has been suggested as a suitable approach to address these challenges and the Delphi method forms one of the central components of this approach. In Delphi method, experts provide their insights (usually probability estimates or rating of the topic under consideration, and rationale for the estimate pr rating) in iterative rounds (usually 2-3 rounds) of anonymous surveys as response of the experts is kept anonymous from each other. Experts refine their estimates and rationales in each round to converge towards a group estimate and/or understanding of the topic under consideration. However, it is not always possible to achieve group consensus. Dissensus is also possible in Delphi studies and may result in a list of statements (or range of values) that show what factors can drive possible alternative futures.

In this seminar, I present results of a Delphi study from an NSF-funded participatory modeling project where we engaged agri-tech and agri-policy experts from diverse domains (i.e., govt, academia, civil society, private sector, industry) to systematically collect group estimate values on a range of human dimension variables (policy and market variables like irrigation, crop insurance, conservation payment, farm structure, etc.) that are most likely to accelerate or decelerate changes in regional crop suitabilities and that can be incorporated into models used to forecast future cropping patterns in the Central and Southern United States. The main aims are (a) to ascertain ‘do experts converge on group estimates?’ and (b) to quantify the likelihood of important socio-technical changes that might affect cropping patterns in these two regions by 2050?